Mathematical Risk Analysis Research Group

6 Researchers:
　Bin-Le Lin, Yuriko Ishikawa, Hiroo Hata, Vazquez Santiago Jairo, Monami Kondo

8 Contract Employees

Outline

We are developing modeling technologies related to environmental exposure and risk, which are important for assessing the risk of chemical substances to humans and ecosystems. Through these technologies, exposure amounts and risks can be estimated without actual measurement data for proposing effective measures for risk reduction. In order to address the risk assessment of various chemical substances, including new substances, we are also conducting research that contributes to the speed and efficiency of risk assessment, such as the use of satellite data and the estimation of parameters related to environmental fate based on mathematical methods. Through this work, we aim to contribute to rational decision-making by governments and companies by enabling the evaluation of environmental and energy-related policies and technologies.

Research Highlights

Development of exposure models

ADMER (Atmospheric Dispersion Model for Exposure and Risk assessment) & ADMER-PRO

Estimate atmospheric concentrations and population exposure to chemical substances with high spatial and temporal resolution.
Models contains required input data, so concentration distributions and reduction potentials can be estimated with little time and effort.

Output display of concentration distribution in air

SHANEL (Standardized Hydrology-based Assessment tool for chemical Exposure Load)

Estimation of spatial distributions and temporal changes of chemical concentration in rivers nationwide.
Exposure assessment of chemicals in rivers by life and industrial activities or leakage accidents.
Set data on watershed information.
Improving the model to apply to marine biodegradable plastics.

Example of concentration distribution in river water

RAM-TB (Risk Assessment Model – Tokyo Bay)

Spatial-temporal analysis of concentrations of chemical substances in coastal water.
Ecological risk assessment by load in coast, air and rivers and simple physical properties.
Set data on ocean currents and nutrients for the target coastal area.
Improving the model to apply to marine biodegradable plastics.

Output display of concentration distribution in Tokyo Bay

Environmental risk and risk trade-off assessment

Dissemination and Innovation of an all-in-one tool (AIST-MeRAM)

An all-in-one ecological risk assessment tool called AIST-MeRAM is being developed and being advanced by its functions/database and its intelligent features.

Risk/risk tradeoff assessment of nitrogen (N) and its related technologies

A process-based N cycle model is being developed. In addition, the environmental risk trade-off assessment of N reactive compounds related to biomass and ammonia hydrogen is investigated as well.

Atmospheric modeling via chemical kinetics

Chemical kinetics and chemical transport model

Evaluating the rate constants of atmospheric chemical reactions by spectroscopical experiments and quantum chemistry calculation.
Incorporation of the chemical kinetic parameters to regional and global chemical transport models.
Health risk evaluation for the scenario of the introduction of next generation technologies by the chemical transport models.

Change of PM2.5 concentration by incorporating new kinetic parameters.

Data-driven approaches to air quality assessment

Exploring air pollution dynamics to support sustainability

Integrating satellite and ground-based data to analyze spatial and temporal patterns of air pollutants in diverse environments.
Developing advanced statistical models to identify key drivers of pollutant variability and forecast air quality.

Supporting science-based environmental policy and sustainable development through data-driven insights.

Global distribution of nitrogen dioxide (NO2) for 2024 and its long-term trends across three different regions.

Mass transport at soil-atmosphere boundary

Focus on volatile chemical substances (VCSs)

Assessing inhalation exposure at ground surface
Modelling transport of chemicals from contaminated soil into the atmosphere by volatilization

Analyzing the effects of rainfall and changes in atmospheric pressure and temperature on transport of substances from the soil to the atmosphere

Dependency of volatile emissions on environmental conditions